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We have had a number of exchanges with Chris Doty on our traffic model white paper questions concerning the current ODOT Hunnell traffic forecasts. The current projections are for year 2040 and are 1,100 vehicles a day at Hunnell and Cooley and 900 vehicles a day at Tumalo road. This represents on a comparative basis with Old Bend Redmond Highway (OBRH) forecast that Hunnell has 38% to 66% of the traffic volume of OBRH. (see above graphic)
Chris has been very responsive to our questions. In the next two sections below you will see our initial questions about the model and then in the subsequent section you will see our e-mail exchange with his answers. We are publishing it in full.
One important note. Chris has indicated that he does not believe that the Land Use Assumptions for the Model have been updated since 1996. Clearly this will impact the current forecast. Likewise he has concerns about the model accuracy for low volume road links like Hunnell.
Hunnell Traffic Volumes Predictions and Data
Draft September 5, 2020
Starting on June 8th of 2020 the HUNS have attempted to get answers on the amount of traffic that is forecasted to appear on Hunnell road after the Deschutes County planned road ‘improvements’ are completed. Our Hunnell road services approximately 412 separate real estate parcels for these roads; Pohaku, Hunnell, Lowe lane, Bowery Lane, Harris, Rodgers, Crosswinds, Jefferson Ct., Tanglewood, Quail Haven, Sun Beam and Scenic. Note this includes 49 parcels for the mobile home parcels at 64900 Hunnell road. This also includes 178 Starwood addresses. This represents .2% of the population of Deschutes County.
There are several data points that have been obtained in our research. Based on these data points we have formed the following conclusions:
1. June 8 ,2020 Chris Doty answers the initial HUN questions for traffic data. It is question
#5 on his response. This is the response “ODOT’s most recent 2040 traffic model estimates 900 vehicles per day on the north end (near Tumalo Road) and 1100 vehicles per day, south of Rogers Rd.” (Note we think this data is for 2030 based on later input)
2. Chris Doty June 8 , 2020 statement also implies little traffic is projected. See question
2b of his June response, for the HUNs asking for more traffic volume information. Chris replies “ODOT (and the federal government, County and City) have secured $130M in funding to address issues at Cooley Road and Robal Road on US 97 and essentially complete the north end of the Parkway. Furthermore, ODOT has also secured funding to construct a double-lane roundabout at US 20/Old Bend-Redmond – which will facilitate safe access to US 20 from his county arterial. With these improvements in place, the likelihood of a circuitous and out-of-direction route in Hunnell Road providing a more expeditious route to and from the City’s commercial area (to US 97 and/or Old Bend-Redmond Highway) is very low”. (Bold provided by HUNs)
3. During the July 1, 2020 Robert Townsend ODOT presentation meeting with the HUNS, Robert indicated he felt the ODOT 2016 model results used by the County might not be correct and out of date.
4. In an e-mail to Chris Doty, Michel Bayard on August 5 , 2020 requested information on
additional traffic data from Chris Doty. Chris provided this data (see link here) on August
8th , 2020. If this data is correct it is anticipated that traffic for Hunnell will have 66% of
OBRH volumes in 2030 at the upper end of Hunnell. (See graphic above right). The Background 2016 Traffic Model to forecast Hunnell traffic is included in this map and more info is referenced here.
5. Quote from Road Deschutes County Web site on September 5, 2020. “Traffic volumes have increased by over 50 percent on Deschutes Market Road and the Old Bend- Redmond Highway in the past five years and similar growth rates have been experienced on similar county facilities which provide an alternative route to US 97. In response to these trends, we're developing several projects on the Old-Bend Redmond Highway and Deschutes Market Road corridors to address safety issues exacerbated by growth and provide intersection capacity necessitated by growth”.
6. Sight Measurements by HUNS: Several of our members walk Hunnell road regularly and we have asked them to log five items each day. The date, time walked, time ended, vehicle traffic observed and foot walkers/bikers observed. This data has given the following results: The average number of vehicle traffic observed was 7.4 per hour and the average walker/bike traffic observed was 7.6 walker/bikers per hour.
Summary:
From these research items, the HUNS view is that the County does not have traffic data
that is satisfactory for our HUN members. We would like more information including, current traffic data on Pohaku Road, current traffic data on Hunnell south of Pohaku, current traffic on Rodgers Road and new model data forecasted for Hunnell that ODOT believes is correct.
In the e-mail thread send to us with the traffic information on August 8th there was a response from Tyler Deke on March 5th of 2020 to our Hunnell information. The response indicated there was interest by the Bend MPO (metropolitan planning organization) to get more up-to-date information. We would like copies of any information that the BEND MPO has that will help us understand future traffic volumes on Hunnell Road.
Note:
There was measurement of Pohaku traffic data several years ago. That data found the following 700? trips per day. This data gives no indication of the traffic flows on Hunnell since at least 75% of traffic on Pohaku is a result of traffic coming from or to the mobile home park north on Hunnell at 64900 Hunnell road or by residents of Star View who find it easier access from OBRH (Old Bend Redmond Highway) by skipping the intersection of OBRH and Tumalo Road and using a cut though using Pohaku/ Hunnell north road to get to Star View. We have been unable to find any traffic data South of Pohaku on Hunnell.
Graphic of Traffic Volume 2016 Study
Note this exchange was September 28, 2020
Chip:
The document you have in your file was in reference to a model request ODOT submitted to their Transportation Planning Analysis unit in 2016 as they were preparing an application for INFRA grant funding for the North End Project. That document was sent to you based on the following question and answer:
3. We would like to get a better understanding of the assumptions for the most recent ODOT Hunnell traffic forecast study cited by Chris and get copies of that data and report.
Reply: Attached is an email from ODOT's Transportation Planning and Analysis Unit. They are the keepers of the Bend MPO traffic model. No report was issued, just this data based on a model request we made regarding Hunnell Road. Attached is the Request for Travel Demand Management Form that was submitted for Hunnell in a prior year; this notes some of the assumptions made in the future scenario.
The document notes the assumptions with regard to the Hunnell Road configuration used in ODOT's model - which is the question that was asked. In March of 2020, with the help of Tyler Deke of the Bend MPO, we asked ODOT to update the model data to reflect 2040 and that is what we have provided to you. The attached email is what I forwarded to Cody Smith (County Engineer) after a conference call with TPAU and the MPO to discuss the model output. In that call they communicated to me that it was 2040 data.
What is important to remember with regard to transportation modelling is that it reflects the development assumptions of the adjacent undeveloped land. I do not believe that any changes occurred in development assumptions within the model in the Golden Triangle area between the model run in 2016 (2030 estimate) and 2020 (2040 estimate). In other words, its less about 2030 vs 2040 and more about the land use assumptions within the model.
At this time we are estimating a mid-November meeting. Hunnell Road is a 2022 project and we are in the midst of trying to get our 2021 projects designed/delivered as well as finishing up the 2020 construction season. We were trying to move this up given the neighborhood conversations, however it appears we will need to stick to our original Fall schedule as communicated in the original correspondence.
Thanks for your patience and understanding.
Chris Doty, PE | Director
DESCHUTES COUNTY ROAD DEPARTMENT
61150 SE 27th Street | Bend, Oregon 97702
Tel: (541) 322-7105 | Fax: (541) 388-2719 | Cell: (541) 279-1134
Email: Chris.Doty@deschutes.org
Website: www.deschutes.org/road
-----Original Message-----
From: Hunnell <info@hunnell.org>
Sent: Monday, September 28, 2020 11:30 AM
To: Chris Doty <Chris.Doty@deschutes.org>
Cc: Michel Bayard <mlbayard1943@gmail.com>; Cody Smith <Cody.Smith@deschutes.org>
Subject: Re: Hunnell traffic Model.
[EXTERNAL EMAIL]
________________________________
Chris,
Thank you again for you response.
Here is one question that I think we should get resolved. The information that you sent Michell that we posted on our web site shows a request in 2016 for Hunnell traffic modeling for 2030 not 2040. Do we have the right information as you indicate the model is for 2040?
I shall remove all the rumors in the document as you requested.
Bruce Haperin indicated that you felt that the County would have a meeting soon on the road design. Is there any news on the date?
Best,
Chip
On Sep 18, 2020, at 3:54 PM, Chris Doty <chris.doty@deschutes.org> wrote:
Chip,
We have provided your group all of the information we have available and have been, and will continue to be, as transparent as possible in our communications. The document you have provided contains a combination of data provided by the county, un-contextualized statements of County and ODOT staff, informal traffic counts from neighborhood residents, local observations of traffic flow, and maybe a few rumors. It is a little hard to track. In lieu of "reviewing" the document, perhaps I should just reiterate where we stand from my point-of-view.
1. The ODOT traffic model is the only forecasting tool available, it is up-to-date with the City's land use configuration and zoning, and it estimates Hunnell traffic volumes in the 900 to 1100 vehicles per day range north of the UGB in 2040. I am not a modelling expert, but I understand that traffic models tend be less accurate or reliable on the lower volume links (roads) that are modelled in the system; they are better predictors for higher volume arterial roadways and other major corridors. That said, collector roads are generally designed and capable of carrying signicantly higher volumes of traffic than what the model data suggests for Hunnell. If the traffic model is off by 50% one way, or 300% the other, the traffic volume would not exceed the carrying capacity of a collector roadway and do little to impact any of the design. Once the incomplete section from Loco Road to Rogers Road is established, it will function as a collector by virtue of competition of an incomplete section of street grid.
2. We understand the concerns regarding the potential for speed and the attractiveness of Hunnell as a cut-thru route once complete. We share those concerns and we are evaluating contextually appropriate traffic calming elements and other features which discourage both speed and cut-thru potential.
Sorry for the delayed response. We have had our hands full with a few items at the Road Department of late. Thank you for your patience.
Chris Doty, PE | Director
DESCHUTES COUNTY ROAD DEPARTMENT
61150 SE 27th Street | Bend, Oregon 97702
Tel: (541) 322-7105 | Fax: (541) 388-2719 | Cell: (541) 279-1134
Email: Chris.Doty@deschutes.org
Website: www.deschutes.org/road
-----Original Message-----
From: Hunnell <info@hunnell.org>
Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2020 3:33 PM
To: Chris Doty <Chris.Doty@deschutes.org>
Cc: Michel Bayard <mlbayard1943@gmail.com>
Subject: Hunnell traffic Model.
[EXTERNAL EMAIL]
________________________________
Chris,
We would like your review and comments on the attached document. The Hunnell United Neighbors (HUNS) have concerns about the traffic projections on Hunnell Road after the project for widening and paving is complete. Michel Bayard also feels it would be a great idea to get your input. We as a group have been very, very impressed with your promptness in answering our questions in the past and thank you for doing that. If you would like to share this document with any one at ODOT for their input we would welcome that as well. We look forward to your reply.
Best,
Hunnell Neighbors tech ops.
Chip Arthur
Copyright © 2024 Hunnell United Neighbors - All Rights Reserved.
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